Rocky Mountain Lows with Dale Murphy
And a cautionary HOF tale about "locks"
Hey! Merry Christmas!! And now on to…
1993 Upper Deck Dale Murphy (#706) - Card of the Day
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If you believe the trends, it won’t be long until Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer. Three years, tops. After all, the ten-time Gold Glover garnered just 7.3% of the vote on his first ballot in 2018 and only 7.5% the next year, but by 2024, he had built that total to 61.6%.
With three more chances for the writers to vote him in, he’s a lock. Right?
Well…
Maybe we should check in with Dale Murphy before we stamp Jones’ ticket to Cooperstown. After all, Murph is the most similar batter to Jones, according to Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores.
And, like Jones, Murphy once appeared to be a Hall of Fame lock.
After winning the National League MVP award in both 1982 and 1983, Murphy won home run titles in 1984 and 1985, then smacked a career-high 44 dingers in 1987. At that point, Murphy was 31 years old and had put together a batting line that included a .279 average, 1555 hits, 310 home runs, 927 RBI, and 145 stolen bases. Add in five Gold Gloves as a centerfielder and seven All-Star appearances, and the only thing standing between Murphy and his bronze plaque were a few years.
Even mediocre production the next half dozen or so summers would get him there.
And then, well, his wheels fell off.
In 1988, Murph hit .226, then followed up with marks of .228 and .245. His on-base percentage tumbled to the .310s, and his homer totals deflated to 24, 20, and 24 through 1990. He also failed to reach double-digit steals in any of those summers.
To add insult to misery, the Braves traded Murphy and Tommy Greene to the Phillies in August of 1990 for Jim Vatcher and Víctor Rosario, who were actually players to be named later.
After another similar season in 1991, one that produced just 18 homers, Murphy was sidelined most of 1992 with a bum knee. The Phils released him before the 1993 season, and the brand new Colorado Rockies swooped in to sign him as a free agent for their inaugural season. But even the light air of Mile High Stadium couldn’t help him turn the tide.
After hitting .143 with no home runs after 26 games, Murphy retired.
His exit came early enough in the season that the card manufacturers excluded him from their 1994 sets, but Upper Deck did see fit to feature him in their 1993 high-number run (as you see above).
Murphy’s full career line includes a .265 batting average, 2111 hits, 398 home runs, 1266 RBI, and 161 stolen bases. By the time he hit the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 1999, the lock had been replaced by a couple strips of masking tape.
Murphy pulled down just 19.3% of the votes that first year, increased to 23.2% in 2000, and then bounced around between eight and 19 percent for the rest of his 15-year run. He has also come up short on three Veterans’ Committee ballots.
So, is Andruw Jones a lock for the Hall of Fame? Probably, but as another one-time all-world Atlanta Braves centerfielder can attest, Cooperstown can prove to be an elusive destination.
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Sigh. RIP, Rickey…